THE INFLUENCE OF DAYS OF THE WEEK, SEASONALITY AND LUNAR PHASES ON THE SUICIDE RATE IN THE CITIES OF SEMEY, UST-KAMENOGORSK AND PAVLODAR REGION.
Introduction. Suicide is a global public health problem. More than 720,000 people die by suicide each year. Every suicide is a tragedy that affects families, communities, and entire countries, with long-term consequences for the loved ones of the deceased. The timing of suicides may also depend on external factors. Research on this topic has so far yielded somewhat contradictory results regarding the relationship between suicides and specific days or seasons of the year. Seasonal factors influence the level of suicides and the number of suicide attempts.
Objective: Analyze the impact of weekdays, months, seasonal fluctuations, and lunar phases on the suicide rate in the Pavlodar region, including the cities of Ust-Kamenogorsk and Semey.
Materials and Methods: A retrospective study. To determine seasonality in the time series of completed suicides, seasonal-trend decomposition using the Loess method was applied. Graphical methods were used to identify seasonal fluctuations, as well as the statistical criteria QS and Kruskal-Wallis. The influence of seasonality was assessed using a linear regression model that accounted for trends and seasons. Data from forensic examinations in Ust-Kamenogorsk, Semey, and the Pavlodar region were collected for the period from 2013 to 2022, including 3657 cases of suicide. Variables: days of the week, months, lunar phase.
Results. The Kruskal-Wallis test showed statistically significant differences between the quarters χ2(3) = 15.35, p = 0.00154127. Moreover, the QS statistical criterion indicated the existence of seasonality QS = 7.65, p = 0.02185496. An increase in the average number of suicides in the second quarter. Increases and decreases in completed suicides occurred on all days of the week. Quasi-Poisson regression did not reveal an influence of lunar phases on the number of completed suicides.
Conclusions. The study found an increase in the number of suicides in the second quarter of the year (from April to June), while no significant dependence of the number of suicides on the days of the week or lunar phases was established.
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Apbassova M., Apbassova S.A., Svitich T.N., Shabdarbayeva D.M., Chaizhunusova N.Zh., Berikuly D., Bulegenov T.A., Mutig K., Lepesbayev M.N., Mussina A.A., Shalgumbayeva G.M., Amantayeva G.K., Dyussupov A.A. The influence of days of the week, seasonality and lunar phases on the suicide rate in the cities of Semey, Ust-Kamenogorsk and Pavlodar region // Nauka i Zdravookhranenie [Science & Healthcare]. 2024. Vol.26 (6), pp. 12-20. doi 10.34689/SH.2024.26.6.002Related publications:
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