THE INFLUENCE OF DAYS OF THE WEEK, SEASONALITY AND LUNAR PHASES ON THE SUICIDE RATE IN THE CITIES OF SEMEY, UST-KAMENOGORSK AND PAVLODAR REGION.
Introduction. Suicide is a global public health problem. More than 720,000 people die by suicide each year. Every suicide is a tragedy that affects families, communities, and entire countries, with long-term consequences for the loved ones of the deceased. The timing of suicides may also depend on external factors. Research on this topic has so far yielded somewhat contradictory results regarding the relationship between suicides and specific days or seasons of the year. Seasonal factors influence the level of suicides and the number of suicide attempts.
Objective: Analyze the impact of weekdays, months, seasonal fluctuations, and lunar phases on the suicide rate in the Pavlodar region, including the cities of Ust-Kamenogorsk and Semey.
Materials and Methods: A retrospective study. To determine seasonality in the time series of completed suicides, seasonal-trend decomposition using the Loess method was applied. Graphical methods were used to identify seasonal fluctuations, as well as the statistical criteria QS and Kruskal-Wallis. The influence of seasonality was assessed using a linear regression model that accounted for trends and seasons. Data from forensic examinations in Ust-Kamenogorsk, Semey, and the Pavlodar region were collected for the period from 2013 to 2022, including 3657 cases of suicide. Variables: days of the week, months, lunar phase.
Results. The Kruskal-Wallis test showed statistically significant differences between the quarters χ2(3) = 15.35, p = 0.00154127. Moreover, the QS statistical criterion indicated the existence of seasonality QS = 7.65, p = 0.02185496. An increase in the average number of suicides in the second quarter. Increases and decreases in completed suicides occurred on all days of the week. Quasi-Poisson regression did not reveal an influence of lunar phases on the number of completed suicides.
Conclusions. The study found an increase in the number of suicides in the second quarter of the year (from April to June), while no significant dependence of the number of suicides on the days of the week or lunar phases was established
Objective: Analyze the impact of weekdays, months, seasonal fluctuations, and lunar phases on the suicide rate in the Pavlodar region, including the cities of Ust-Kamenogorsk and Semey.
Materials and Methods: A retrospective study. To determine seasonality in the time series of completed suicides, seasonal-trend decomposition using the Loess method was applied. Graphical methods were used to identify seasonal fluctuations, as well as the statistical criteria QS and Kruskal-Wallis. The influence of seasonality was assessed using a linear regression model that accounted for trends and seasons. Data from forensic examinations in Ust-Kamenogorsk, Semey, and the Pavlodar region were collected for the period from 2013 to 2022, including 3657 cases of suicide. Variables: days of the week, months, lunar phase.
Results. The Kruskal-Wallis test showed statistically significant differences between the quarters χ2(3) = 15.35, p = 0.00154127. Moreover, the QS statistical criterion indicated the existence of seasonality QS = 7.65, p = 0.02185496. An increase in the average number of suicides in the second quarter. Increases and decreases in completed suicides occurred on all days of the week. Quasi-Poisson regression did not reveal an influence of lunar phases on the number of completed suicides.
Conclusions. The study found an increase in the number of suicides in the second quarter of the year (from April to June), while no significant dependence of the number of suicides on the days of the week or lunar phases was established
Madina Apbassova1, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3215-1076
Saulesh A. Apbassova1, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6650-4971
Tatyana N. Svitich2, https://orcid.org/0009-0005-1079-251X
Dariya M. Shabdarbayeva1, httр://оrсіd.оrg/0000-0001-9463-1935
Nailya Zh. Chaizhunusova1, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6660-7118
Tolkyn A. Bulegenov1, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6145-9649
Murat N. Lepesbayev1, https://0009-0006-9810-9232
Aiman A. Mussina3, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0864-1238
Gulnar M. Shalgumbayeva1, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3310-4490
Gaukhar K. Amantayeva1, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8422-7936
Altay A. Dyussupov1, https://orcid.org/ 0000-0003-0875-1020
1 NJSC «Semey Medical University», Semey, Republic of Kazakhstan;
2 Association of Family Doctors of Kazakhstan, Branch in Abay region, Semey, Republic of Kazakhstan;
3 NJSC «Astana Medical University», Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan.
Saulesh A. Apbassova1, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6650-4971
Tatyana N. Svitich2, https://orcid.org/0009-0005-1079-251X
Dariya M. Shabdarbayeva1, httр://оrсіd.оrg/0000-0001-9463-1935
Nailya Zh. Chaizhunusova1, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6660-7118
Tolkyn A. Bulegenov1, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6145-9649
Murat N. Lepesbayev1, https://0009-0006-9810-9232
Aiman A. Mussina3, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0864-1238
Gulnar M. Shalgumbayeva1, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3310-4490
Gaukhar K. Amantayeva1, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8422-7936
Altay A. Dyussupov1, https://orcid.org/ 0000-0003-0875-1020
1 NJSC «Semey Medical University», Semey, Republic of Kazakhstan;
2 Association of Family Doctors of Kazakhstan, Branch in Abay region, Semey, Republic of Kazakhstan;
3 NJSC «Astana Medical University», Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan.
References:
1. Altamura C. et al. Seasonal and circadian rhythms in suicide in Cagliari, Italy. Journal of Affective Disorders. 1999. № 1 (53). pp. 77–85.
2. Ambar Akkaoui M. et al. Seasonal changes and decrease of suicides and suicide attempts in France over the last 10 years. Scientific reports. 2022. № 1 (12). pp. 80-89.
3. Benard V., Geoffroy P.A., Bellivier F. [Seasons, circadian rhythms, sleep and suicidal behaviors vulnerability]. L’Encephale. 2015. № 4 Suppl 1 (41). pp. 29–37.
4. Björkstén K.S., Bjerregaard P. Season of birth is different in Inuit suicide victims born into Traditional than into Modern Lifestyle: a register study from Greenland. BMC psychiatry. 2015. № 1 (15). pp. 80
5. Burns R.A. et al. Age and sex differences in the annual and seasonal variation of Australia’s suicide rate, 2000-2020 . International review of psychiatry (Abingdon, England). 2024. № 4–5 (36). pp.120-130.
6. Coimbra D.G. et al. Do suicide attempts occur more frequently in the spring too? A systematic review and rhythmic analysis. Journal of affective disorders. 2016. (196). pp. 125–137.
7. Deisenhammer E.A., Stiglbauer C., Kemmler G. Time-related aspects of suicides - suicide frequency related to birthday, major holidays, day of the week, season, month of birth and zodiac signs (I Part). Neuropsychiatrie : Klinik, Diagnostik, Therapie und Rehabilitation : Organ der Gesellschaft Osterreichischer Nervenarzte und Psychiater. 2018. № 2 (32). pp. 93–100.
8. Deisenhammer E.A., Stiglbauer C., Kemmler G. Time-related aspects of suicides - suicide frequency related to birthday, major holidays, day of the week, season, month of birth and zodiac signs (II Part). Neuropsychiatrie : Klinik, Diagnostik, Therapie und Rehabilitation : Organ der Gesellschaft Osterreichischer Nervenarzte und Psychiater. 2018. № 2 (32). pp. 100-105.
9. Doğan N., Toprak D., Doğan İ. Influence of birth cohort, age and period on suicide mortality rate in Turkey, 1983-2013. Central European journal of public health. 2019. № 2 (27). pp. 141–144.
10. Galvão P.V.., Silva H.R., Silva C.M. da Temporal distribution of suicide mortality: A systematic review. Journal of affective disorders. 2018. (228). pp. 132–142.
11. Gammoh O. et al. Assessment of depression, PTSD, and insomnia symptoms in a cohort of Palestinian migrants residing in Jordanian camps during the outbreak of the War on Gaza: occurrence and correlates. Discover mental health. 2025. № 1 (5). pp. 8-12.
12. Ilic M., Ilic I. Suicide in Serbia. Journal of affective disorders. 2016. (193). pp. 187–193.
13. Kattimani S. et al. Temporal variations in suicide attempt rates: A hospital-based study from India. Journal of family medicine and primary care. 2016. № 2 (5). pp. 357.
14. Kayipmaz S. et al. The effect of meteorological variables on suicide. International journal of biometeorology. 2020. № 9 (64). pp. 1593–1598.
15. Kim Y. et al. Suicide and Ambient Temperature: A Multi-Country Multi-City Study. Environmental health perspectives. 2019. № 11 (127).pp.320-235.
16. Klimiuk K.B. et al. Seasonal Trends in Suicide Attempts-Keywords Related Searches: A Google Trends Analysis. Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland). 2024. № 13 (12).pp.150-155.
17. Kwok C.L., Yip P.S. Diminishing seasonality of self-harm: Temporal trends in Hong Kong SAR. Journal of affective disorders. 2017. (207). pp. 63–68.
18. Lasota D. et al. Seasonality of Suicides among Victims Who Are under the Influence of Alcohol. International journal of environmental research and public health. 2019. № 15 (16). pp.140-145.
19. Park G. W. V., Cho S. il Monday peak is unique to suicide? Comparison of weekly distribution by causes of death using national representative cohort database. Suicide & life-threatening behavior. 2023. № 4 (53). pp. 613–627.
20. Ploderl M. Suicide risk over the course of the day, week, and life. Psychiatria Danubina. 2021. № 3 (33). pp. 438–445.
21. Plöderl M. et al. Increased suicide risk among younger women in winter during full moon in northern Europe. An artifact or a novel finding? Molecular psychiatry. 2023. № 2 (28). pp. 901–907.
22. To S. et al. Seasonal variation in suicide: age group and summer effects in the United States (2015–2020). BMC Psychiatry. 2024. № 1 (24). pp. 1–8.
23. Vélez-Grau C. et al. Suicidal ideation among women who engage in sex work and have a history of drug use in Kazakhstan. Mental health & prevention. 2021. (23).pp.130-135.
24. Vyssoki B. et al. Direct effect of sunshine on suicide. JAMA psychiatry. 2014. № 11 (71). pp. 1231–1237.
25. World Health Organization Suicide worldwide in 2019: Global Health Estimates. World Health Organization, Geneva. 2019. pp. 4–9.
26. Yang C. T. et al. Seasonal changes in suicide in South Korea, 1991 to 2015. PloS one. 2019. № 6 (14). pp.170-175.
27. Yu J. et al. Seasonality of suicide: a multi-country multi-community observational study. Epidemiology and psychiatric sciences. 2020. (29).pp.190-195.
1. Altamura C. et al. Seasonal and circadian rhythms in suicide in Cagliari, Italy. Journal of Affective Disorders. 1999. № 1 (53). pp. 77–85.
2. Ambar Akkaoui M. et al. Seasonal changes and decrease of suicides and suicide attempts in France over the last 10 years. Scientific reports. 2022. № 1 (12). pp. 80-89.
3. Benard V., Geoffroy P.A., Bellivier F. [Seasons, circadian rhythms, sleep and suicidal behaviors vulnerability]. L’Encephale. 2015. № 4 Suppl 1 (41). pp. 29–37.
4. Björkstén K.S., Bjerregaard P. Season of birth is different in Inuit suicide victims born into Traditional than into Modern Lifestyle: a register study from Greenland. BMC psychiatry. 2015. № 1 (15). pp. 80
5. Burns R.A. et al. Age and sex differences in the annual and seasonal variation of Australia’s suicide rate, 2000-2020 . International review of psychiatry (Abingdon, England). 2024. № 4–5 (36). pp.120-130.
6. Coimbra D.G. et al. Do suicide attempts occur more frequently in the spring too? A systematic review and rhythmic analysis. Journal of affective disorders. 2016. (196). pp. 125–137.
7. Deisenhammer E.A., Stiglbauer C., Kemmler G. Time-related aspects of suicides - suicide frequency related to birthday, major holidays, day of the week, season, month of birth and zodiac signs (I Part). Neuropsychiatrie : Klinik, Diagnostik, Therapie und Rehabilitation : Organ der Gesellschaft Osterreichischer Nervenarzte und Psychiater. 2018. № 2 (32). pp. 93–100.
8. Deisenhammer E.A., Stiglbauer C., Kemmler G. Time-related aspects of suicides - suicide frequency related to birthday, major holidays, day of the week, season, month of birth and zodiac signs (II Part). Neuropsychiatrie : Klinik, Diagnostik, Therapie und Rehabilitation : Organ der Gesellschaft Osterreichischer Nervenarzte und Psychiater. 2018. № 2 (32). pp. 100-105.
9. Doğan N., Toprak D., Doğan İ. Influence of birth cohort, age and period on suicide mortality rate in Turkey, 1983-2013. Central European journal of public health. 2019. № 2 (27). pp. 141–144.
10. Galvão P.V.., Silva H.R., Silva C.M. da Temporal distribution of suicide mortality: A systematic review. Journal of affective disorders. 2018. (228). pp. 132–142.
11. Gammoh O. et al. Assessment of depression, PTSD, and insomnia symptoms in a cohort of Palestinian migrants residing in Jordanian camps during the outbreak of the War on Gaza: occurrence and correlates. Discover mental health. 2025. № 1 (5). pp. 8-12.
12. Ilic M., Ilic I. Suicide in Serbia. Journal of affective disorders. 2016. (193). pp. 187–193.
13. Kattimani S. et al. Temporal variations in suicide attempt rates: A hospital-based study from India. Journal of family medicine and primary care. 2016. № 2 (5). pp. 357.
14. Kayipmaz S. et al. The effect of meteorological variables on suicide. International journal of biometeorology. 2020. № 9 (64). pp. 1593–1598.
15. Kim Y. et al. Suicide and Ambient Temperature: A Multi-Country Multi-City Study. Environmental health perspectives. 2019. № 11 (127).pp.320-235.
16. Klimiuk K.B. et al. Seasonal Trends in Suicide Attempts-Keywords Related Searches: A Google Trends Analysis. Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland). 2024. № 13 (12).pp.150-155.
17. Kwok C.L., Yip P.S. Diminishing seasonality of self-harm: Temporal trends in Hong Kong SAR. Journal of affective disorders. 2017. (207). pp. 63–68.
18. Lasota D. et al. Seasonality of Suicides among Victims Who Are under the Influence of Alcohol. International journal of environmental research and public health. 2019. № 15 (16). pp.140-145.
19. Park G. W. V., Cho S. il Monday peak is unique to suicide? Comparison of weekly distribution by causes of death using national representative cohort database. Suicide & life-threatening behavior. 2023. № 4 (53). pp. 613–627.
20. Ploderl M. Suicide risk over the course of the day, week, and life. Psychiatria Danubina. 2021. № 3 (33). pp. 438–445.
21. Plöderl M. et al. Increased suicide risk among younger women in winter during full moon in northern Europe. An artifact or a novel finding? Molecular psychiatry. 2023. № 2 (28). pp. 901–907.
22. To S. et al. Seasonal variation in suicide: age group and summer effects in the United States (2015–2020). BMC Psychiatry. 2024. № 1 (24). pp. 1–8.
23. Vélez-Grau C. et al. Suicidal ideation among women who engage in sex work and have a history of drug use in Kazakhstan. Mental health & prevention. 2021. (23).pp.130-135.
24. Vyssoki B. et al. Direct effect of sunshine on suicide. JAMA psychiatry. 2014. № 11 (71). pp. 1231–1237.
25. World Health Organization Suicide worldwide in 2019: Global Health Estimates. World Health Organization, Geneva. 2019. pp. 4–9.
26. Yang C. T. et al. Seasonal changes in suicide in South Korea, 1991 to 2015. PloS one. 2019. № 6 (14). pp.170-175.
27. Yu J. et al. Seasonality of suicide: a multi-country multi-community observational study. Epidemiology and psychiatric sciences. 2020. (29).pp.190-195.
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Apbassova M., Apbassova S.A., Svitich T.N., Shabdarbayeva D.M., Chaizhunusova N.Zh., Bulegenov T.A., Mutig K., Lepesbayev M.N., Mussina A.A., Shalgumbayeva G.M., Amantayeva G.K., Dyussupov A.A. The influence of days of the week, seasonality and lunar phases on the suicide rate in the cities of Semey, Ust-Kamenogorsk and Pavlodar region // Nauka i Zdravookhranenie [Science & Healthcare]. 2024. Vol.26 (6), pp. 108-114. doi 10.34689/SH.2024.26.6.002Похожие публикации:
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