DOCTORS CONTINUING PRACTICE AT RETIREMENT AGE IN THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN: RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR FUTURE PHYSICIAN SHORTAGE
Background. Currently, the retirement age in the Republic of Kazakhstan is 58 for women (will be 63 in 2027) and 63 for men. Globally, many doctors continue to work after reaching the retirement age that is also a matter of concern for Kazakhstan.
Aim: The aim of this study is an analysis of the age structure of medical doctors (MDs) working in the government healthcare sector of Kazakhstan & to propose a model for assessing the age-related imbalance of the physician workforce and the risk of staff shortage in the medium and long term.
Materials and methods. We analyzed the national and the regional age structure of MDs for 2017 by dividing them into three age groups: <30 years, 31-55 years, and >55 years. The data were obtained from the Ministry of Health.
Results. Overall, in 2017 there were 54,405 practicing MDs in the country. Of them, 677 MDs (1.2%) retired in 2017, which constitutes 80% of the irrevocable outflow. According to estimates, the number of doctors who are supposed to retire in the period from 2018 to 2025 is 5,500 people (10%). The largest proportion of MDs of retirement age practice in the Kostanay region: 25% (426 out of 1,723), while the lowest proportion works in the South Kazakhstan region: 5% (364 out of 7,922). At the same time, there were 2,146 MDs aged 65 and older and 211 doctors over 75 years of age, the majority of whom (28%) worked in Almaty city. Officially, by the end of 2017 the national shortage of MDs composed 3,011 people and to consider the number of doctors who continue to work after retirement, this number is at least two times higher.
Conclusion. The proposed assessment model allows us to assess the situation at the level of individual regions and specialties. The most favorable is the progressive type of workforce replenishment that exists in the South Kazakhstan, Mangystau and Kyzylorda regions. Particular attention should be paid to regions with a regressive type of replenishment and a high proportion of doctors continuing their practice at retirement age: in the Kostanay region – 25% and in the Atyrau region - 19%.
Saltanat S. Kyrykbayeva1, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6151-6025
Yuliya M. Semenova1, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1324-7806
Maya V. Goremykina1, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1686-528X
Мarzhan A. Dauletyarova2, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8178-4051
Assel A. Nauryzbayeva3, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8328-0380
1 NCJSC «Semey Medical University», Semey city, Republic of Kazakhstan;
2 NCJSC «Astana Medical University, Nur-Sultan city, Republic of Kazakhstan;
3 RSE “Hospital of the Medical Center of the Office of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan”
Nur-Sultan city, Republic of Kazakhstan.
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Кырыкбаева С.С., Семенова Ю.М., Горемыкина М.В., Даулетьярова М.А., Наурызбаева А.А. Работающие врачи пенсионного возраста в Республике Казахстан: модель оценки риска будущего дефицита врачебных кадровых ресурсов // Наука и Здравоохранение. 2020. 2(Т.22). С. 128-134. DOI 10.34689/SH.2020.22.2.015Похожие публикации:
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