RECTAL CANCER IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2005–2024: COMPONENT ANALYSIS OF INCIDENCE TRENDS IN THE CONTEXT OF SCREENING AND COVID-19
Introduction. Rectal cancer constitutes a sizable share of the oncology workload. Reliable interpretation of long‑term trends requires disentangling demographic forces from genuine changes in age‑specific risk, particularly during program roll‑out and the service disruptions associated with COVID‑19.
The aim of the study is to quantify the separate contributions of population size, age structure, and age‑specific risk to rectal cancer incidence in Kazakhstan, 2005–2024, partitioned into five phases: pre‑screening (2005–2010), early roll‑out (2011–2013), program stabilization (2014–2019), pandemic impact (2020–2021), and post‑pandemic recovery (2022–2024).
Material and research methods. A population‑based retrospective study using the Ministry of Health Form No. 7 (ICD‑10: C19–C21). We applied a seven‑term decomposition with demographic components and risk‑related terms; here, “risk” denotes residual change in age‑specific incidence after removing demographic effects.
Results. Over 2005–2024, 28,368 new cases were registered. The crude incidence rate (CR) increased from 7.80 to 9.13 per 100,000 (+1.34). Decomposition of CR yielded: ∑ΔA=+1.42, ∑ΔR=−0.05, ∑ΔRA=−0.03 (per 100,000), indicating a rise driven by population ageing with stable or slightly declining age-specific risks. By phase: 2005–2010 – declines in CR and ASR due to ΔR<0; 2011–2013 – screening-related “peak” (ΔR>0); 2014–2019 – CR rises while ASR falls, increase fully demographic; 2020–2021 – compensatory increase versus 2020, yet 2021 below 2019; 2022–2024 – CR rises with a “flat” ASR, contribution almost exclusively demographic. Age profile stable: ages 50–79 ≈80.7% of registrations.
Conclusions. The upward drift in crude incidence is primarily demographic, while true risk variation is phase‑bound and program‑linked. Policy should prioritize resilient early‑detection pathways, surge capacity for endoscopy, and routine component‑based surveillance focused on ages 50–79.
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Igissin N.S., Telmanova Zh.B., Murzagulov N.A., Igissinova G.S., Turebaev D.K., Dyakov S.S., Moldagali R.S., Shishkin I.Yu., Bilyalov A.R., Mamatov N.N., Bilyalova Z.A. Rectal cancer in Kazakhstan, 2005–2024: component analysis of incidence trends in the context of screening and COVID-19 // Nauka i Zdravookhranenie [Science & Healthcare]. 2025. Vol.27 (5), С.160-168. doi 10.34689/SH.2025.27.5.020Ұқсас жариялымдар:
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